Elektrofahrzeuge sind längst auf unseren Straßen angekommen. Aber warum fühlt sich dann die elektrische Mobilität immer noch wie eine heiße Kartoffel an? Ohne Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit, zeigt Peter Gresch in dieser Folge ZUKUNFT AUTO, den aktuellen Entwicklungsstand der Elektromobilität, anhand von Zahlen auf. Dabei geht er auch darauf ein, warum das Thema für deutsche OEM unbequem ist, und welche Baustellen die Branche schließen muss, damit das Elektrofahrzeug auch ein Erfolgskonzept wird.
Diese Folge wurde auf Englisch aufgezeichnet.
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Mein Name ist Peter Gresch.
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Ich nehme sie mit in die automobile Mobilität
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von heute und morgen.
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Willkommen zu meinem mittlerweile vierten Podcast.
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Dem ich etwas dem Thema Elektromobilität widmen möchte, ohne Anspruch auf
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Vollständigkeit. Denn, dieses Thema wird heiß diskutiert und sicherleich auch in der Zukunft
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noch sehr heiß diskutiert werden. Und es gibt sehr sehr viele Aspekte, die
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man in ungefähr zehn Minuten gar nicht alle erschöpfen kann.
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Da ich sehr viele Kollegen und Freunde im Ausland habe, werde ich diesen Podcast
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auch in englisch besprechen.
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Ich hoffe ihr kommt trotzdem sehr gut mit.
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So let's talk about electromobility and why it is one of the maybe hottest
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discussion topics in the recent years up to now and maybe in the future.
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First of all, no matter from which angle
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you come, whether this is business, whether this is technology,
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jobs, revenue, pricing, market,
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it always feels a little bit like a hot potato.
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So why is that a hot potato?
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Why does it feel so hot and touch so hot?
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Because, first of all, we're undergoing in the automotive industry
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with the electrification of powertrains and the implementation of battery.
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Electric is a major, major change of the industry,
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the most major change probably over the last hundred and more than 100 years.
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Second, especially in Germany, where where automotive centric country,
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we have some of the largest automotive manufacturers in Germany.
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And also among the top five suppliers was Bosch, Continental,
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Tesco and of so, yes, the largest suppliers, many, many jobs in our country
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directly or indirectly depend on the automotive industry.
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Will the owners almost the owners and the inheritors of diesel and gasoline engines.
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Now it is also very efficient drive trains with the new technologies
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and now we're threatened by technologies coming from from other countries. Yes.
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So battery electric vehicles
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have the advantage that they don't pollute.
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I have zero emissions and that's why it's been increasing
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quite a bit, because we all want to reduce CO2 targets.
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We want to do it as an individual.
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Our governments want to do it the whole world in one way or the other,
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and the automotive industry or passenger cars or transportation when we include
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trucks and other transportation, is one of the major polluters of CO2.
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However, when we take a more deeper look into it and talk about, well,
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So when I get the materials from transport demand to fill them
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into, let's say, batteries and cells and then get them into cars,
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and I compare it with gasoline, diesel engines.
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We also have to say this only makes sense when to allow trucks.
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And we do this with regenerative energies.
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So looking only at the electric vehicle
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from the perspective of this will save the planet.
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It's maybe a little bit too short and we also rely on materials, rare materials.
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Some are more common, some are less common.
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But on a typical 30 kilowatt battery of passenger
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car of today with an NMC content of 111
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so even nickel mangum manganese
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and cobalt 12 kilogram
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manganese, 12 kilogram of cobalt
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and 11 nickel and then 4.5 lithium.
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Today's batteries have more like an 811, so meaning
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nickel is the most prevalent dominating material.
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All of those materials are typically not found in Germany or Europe.
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They are found in China, they are found in Australia,
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they are found in third world countries like Africa and South America.
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So in order to cope with these technologies and put them into production,
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we rely on a lot of things for not having in Europe
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and in Germany on top of it, when we talk about the battery
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as the most expensive and the most dominant thing
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in an electric vehicle, the technology is also not coming from Europe.
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It comes from Asia, it comes from China, comes China, Japan, Korea.
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That's where the largest battery manufacturers are.
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That's where the largest cell producers are.
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That's where the materials are found and so on.
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So we own less of the supply chain
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and depend much more on foreign technologies.
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And especially nowadays, with all the political and economic things
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happening around us, this becomes more and more complicated
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if you make it in Germany, you make it every year.
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That's what I often tell colleagues when we're talking automotive industry.
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There's high expectations coming with it on CO2 reduction.
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When we're talking
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electrified powertrains, maybe they are sometimes a bit too high.
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So what comes with it from a market perspective?
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When we look at the market, when we look at the passenger
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car market, the global passenger car market, we produced
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90 million passenger cars in 2019 before COVID.
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In 2000 time, about 83 million passenger cars were sold,
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21 million out of this, 80 in China.
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And out of these 21
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million, 3 million were battery electric or plug in hybrid vehicles.
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So quite an significant amount of cars the market in China is to subsidize.
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But however it's gotten a mature electric vehicle market
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with a lot of new products coming off from local Chinese OEMs
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as well as from the foreign carmakers like the Germans or the Americans.
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The total battery electric and plug in hybrid electric
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market was 6.2 million cars, all of the 83.
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So the other half was mostly sold in Europe and U.S.
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and in Europe. Germany has become by cars.
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The number and largest market
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by percentage is Norway, as it has been over the last years,
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with more than 50% of all new registered vehicles being battery electric.
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But Norway obviously is a small country.
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The market or the global market is in the northern hemisphere,
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not in Africa, not in South America, not in India and so on.
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Why is that? The case? First of all,
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those vehicles are
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still, to a large extent, expensive and subsidize
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a second and foremost, I need an electrical charging
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infrastructure and this charging industrial structure is not built easily.
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I have to implement it.
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I need to know where the current moves, where it comes from.
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So there's a lot of points happening.
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So what do I need?
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All I need a different, uh, infrastructure.
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I need a charging infrastructure when we see a look at Europe
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except Great Britain.
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So European Union, 55% of the charging stations
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as of today are in the Netherlands and Germany.
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We have a passenger car goes by
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ten times over the last five years in Europe,
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but the charging infrastructure has only grown by 2.5.
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The problem with the charging infrastructure is that,
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first of all, on the 160,000 in Europe,
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out of those 60,000 currently
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in Germany, many of them are not, you know, so
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south of the Alps and east of the German border,
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the number of charging stations goes significantly down.
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It's much, much lower.
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And that's why the market is also lower because without insufficient
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charging infrastructure, it's not so much fun to drive.
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So when people ask me,
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should I buy in battery electric or plug in hybrid vehicle,
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I tell them, Well, you can the absolute good cars are fun to drive.
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Yeah, but you should be able to charge at home
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or at your working place, or maybe both, you know,
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because these are the most prevalent situations.
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The car stays overnight or for a longer period of time,
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and you can charge in most cases and then the rest and the decision
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making depends a little bit on how often do you go long distances
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and how old do you want to do it and how much time do you have and so on.
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So by the end of the day, battery, electric vehicles and plug in hybrid
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only because I know my car's like every other car.
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We need to reach.
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The 5055 goal of European Union in 2030,
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which means I go below the 60 grams CO2 per kilometer,
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so significantly below the 95 we have as a target.
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As of today, we need about 14,000 charging stations
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being built per week in York of subscription County
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where we are at about 2000 per week, so 12,000
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per week plus minus off the target.
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And you can always argue in the numbers and this is the number of charging
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stations, right or wrong, there's different statistics and different
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But by the end of the day, we have to see if we don't have sufficient
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charging infrastructure, it will be difficult
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to get the electric vehicle market where we want to have it.
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The other thing, we're not only talking cars, we're talking transportation.
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transportation in cities.
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We're talking long distance transportation.
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We're talking electrified trucks,
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which also need a lot of charging points,
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probably about 300,000 in 2000, 30 and
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almost €8 billion invest per year in the infrastructure.
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the high current has to come in the political discussion.
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We often don't do what many of us wish that we have discussions, more technology
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open to go into open means Japan, Korea, for example,
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investing a lot into fuel cell vehicles, into hydrogen solutions.
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The Chinese government is also investing and looking at it.
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We have discussions on strategic fuels with synthetic fuels.
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They can almost PSC or too neutral as with battery electric vehicles.
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What is the difference on those fuels?
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They're not generated by oil, but they are generated out of gas, out of
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carbon dioxide or from regenerative energies
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that's also disadvantaged, is coming with them
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with how to produce them and they do find materials and so on.
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So there's not this one size fits all solution,
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but there's more alternatives than just going battery electric.
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However, it's an increasing market.
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It's still a subsidized market.
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It's subsidized with now it sells in Europe, in Germany.
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And it will be interesting once we take those subsidies away per car,
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what will happen with the market and what will happen with the demand.
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So to come up with maybe some more realistic predictions
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and some more realistic discussions would be very good.
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It's not mandatory, but it would be great.
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And with that, I'd like to finish my podcast.
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and we'll run a bunch of interviews and comments in the next couple
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of podcasts around this topic of electromobility open for feedback.
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Thank you very much.